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AUGUST 12, 2002. The Bush administration is going whole hog on Iraq. Barring a miracle, like Tony Blair turning from Bush lapdog into Brit bulldog, U.S. bombs will be killing or maiming thousands of hapless Iraqis this fall, or next Spring, at the latest.

If the Iraqis resist, as they may well, U.S. troops will have to fight on the ground. Body bags will begin trickling back to America. Oil prices will hit the roof. The U.S., and much of the global economy, will slump, perhaps deeply. If the Iraqis continue to resist, the body bag trickle may become a flood, and the slump a full-blown depression, dragging down Bush's popularity rates.

If the Iraqis cave quickly, the Iraq war will become the doctrine of the 21st century Pax Americana, Republicans will sweep both houses of Congress, and Bush will be re-elected by a landslide. Apres that, as some French aristo wag said, le deluge.

Related Links

For pop singer George Michael's portrayal of Tony the lapdog in Shoot the Dog.

For BBC Analysis of what a U.S. win may do to Iraq.